TRANSBACO PMO INTELLIGENCE UNIT
VEV Project Management Office (PMO) Report
Venezuela Energy Vector V09.4 (copyright TRANSBACO) – External Validation Brief
PERIOD COVERED January 2026 – 19 June 2026 | PREPARED BY TRANSBACO PMO Intelligence Unit
MASTER PLAN REF Venezuela Energy Vector V09.4 / Full Portfolio $244B
PRODUCTION TARGET 3.0 Mbpd by 2035 / 2.0 Mbpd by mid-2028 | ISSUE DATE 19 June 2026
⚠ STRICT FILTERING NOTICE: This report includes only milestones and facts explicitly verified by named, reputable public sources. Unconfirmed, pending, or internal-only items are omitted. All citations anchor to the Appendix.
ES Executive Summary & Master Plan Heat Map Dashboard
The period January–June 2026 represents the most consequential inflection point in the Venezuela Energy Vector (VEV) program since the TRANSBACO Master Plan was first issued. The removal of Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026 triggered a cascade of policy, regulatory, and corporate actions that the Master Plan had modelled as medium-term upside scenarios. The reform of the Organic Hydrocarbons Law on January 29, 2026 (Official Gazette No. 6.978) and the refreshed OFAC General License suite (GL 46C / 47A / 48B / 50B, June 10, 2026) are the two most significant verified regulatory milestones. [1][2]
By region, publicly confirmed activity is concentrated as follows. In the ORINOCO BELT (eastern Venezuela), production exceeded 500,000 bpd by February 2026 following reversal of December 2025 output cuts; Chevron’s Petropiar and Eni’s Junin-5 are the anchor IOC projects, and Venezuela’s Oil Ministry has publicly identified the Belt as the primary destination for the 93 rigs required through 2028. In WESTERN Venezuela (Lake Maracaibo), Maurel & Prom reactivated a drilling barge for the first time in eight years. OFFSHORE GAS (Dragon, Loran, Perla/Cardon IV) is now the highest-potential frontier, with both Dragon and Loran holding active dual-licensing tracks as of June 2026. [3][4][5][13][14][15][16][17][18]
On the financial side, two parallel tracks are advancing. ENERGY-SECTOR obligations include the CITGO / PDV Holding court-supervised sale (court-approved December 2025 at $5.9B to Amber Energy but not yet closed, pending OFAC clearance and active appeals), PDVSA arbitral awards, and PDVSA 2020 bond claims. SOVEREIGN debt restructuring was formally initiated on May 13, 2026 with Centerview Partners appointed as financial adviser; IMF relations were resumed in April 2026. VEV revenues from the U.S.-administered export framework have generated an estimated ~$8B in the first four months; proceeds are held under EO 14373 custody; a GAO audit was formally requested on April 17, 2026 as the independent oversight mechanism. [10][19][20][21][22][23][25]
VEV Master Plan Alignment Dashboard (Heat Map)
| Sector / Process | Variance Status | Progress vs 2026–2031 | Major Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Upstream | MOMENTUM | ████░░░░░░ 38% | Diluent supply |
| Drilling & Well Delivery | MOMENTUM | ███░░░░░░░ 32% | Repair cost/rig |
| Regulatory / Legal | ALIGNED / AHEAD | ██████░░░░ 55% | IIH rule pending |
| Natural Gas & Offshore | MOMENTUM | ████░░░░░░ 35% | FID timing |
| Refining & Midstream | DIVERGENT | ██░░░░░░░░ 18% | SEN power dep. |
| Petrochemicals | DELAYED | █░░░░░░░░░ 8% | Gas feedstock |
| Power / SEN | CRIT→MOMENTUM | ██░░░░░░░░ 20% | EPC not closed |
| VEV Revenues & Funds | TRANSPARENCY | ██░░░░░░░░ 25% | Audit pending |
| CITGO / PDV Holding | PENDING CLOSE | █████░░░░░ 50% | OFAC approval |
| Sovereign & Energy Debt | ALIGNED | ███░░░░░░░ 30% | Holdout creditors |
Legend: bar colour scales with progress (red <20%, amber 20–29%, blue 30–49%, green ≥50%). Major Risk names the single most material publicly confirmed constraint. Swipe table to see all columns on small screens.
I Categorized Energy Sector Progress Reports
1. Oil & Upstream Services — MOMENTUM
Production Status & Metrics
▸ OUTPUT Venezuela crude production reached 1,031,000 bpd in April 2026 (OPEC/CEIC); EIA and Kpler project ~1.1–1.2 Mbpd by end-2026. [11][13]
▸ ORINOCO BELT RECOVERY The Orinoco Belt exceeded 500,000 bpd by February 2026, reversing December 2025 blockade-era output cuts. [13]
▸ EXPORT SURGE U.S. imports of Venezuelan crude reached 713 Mb/d for the week ending May 15, 2026 — the highest since July 2018. [12]
Corporate Actions
▸ CHEVRON / AYACUCHO 8 Chevron secured preliminary terms to expand into Ayacucho 8 (Petroindependencia), targeting a 49% stake. [3]
▸ REPSOL / PETROQUIRIQUIRE Agreement with MENPET and PDVSA to regain operational control (60% PDVSA / 40% Repsol); 20-year extension to 2048. [4]
▸ ENI / JUNIN-5 Agreement to relaunch the 35 Bbbl Junin-5 heavy-oil field. [5]
Regulatory & Policy Impact
▸ HYDROCARBONS LAW LOH Reform enacted January 29, 2026 (Official Gazette No. 6.978); royalty cap 30%; effective April 3, 2026. [1]
▸ OFAC GL SUITE GL 46C / 47A / 48B / 50B refreshed June 10, 2026, covering Eni, Repsol, Chevron, BP, Shell, Maurel & Prom. [2]
2. Drilling & Well Delivery — MOMENTUM (Early Stage)
Rig Supply & Reactivation Status
▸ ACTIVE RIGS Only 2 drilling rigs were active at end-March 2026 per the Baker Hughes count, both working for Chevron projects. [14]
▸ RIGS PULLED FROM STORAGE At least 9 land rigs taken out of storage; 5 additional rigs under technical assessment. [14][16]
▸ LAKE MARACAIBO Maurel & Prom reactivated a drilling barge — the first in eight years. China Concord’s Alula jackup operating since September 2025. [16]
▸ MINISTRY TARGET Venezuela’s Oil Ministry identified 93 rigs needed through 2028, primarily in the Orinoco Belt. Refurbishment costs can exceed $1M per rig. [14][15]
▸ NO DETAILED PUBLIC RIG PROGRAMME No public well-by-well drilling programme has been published by PDVSA or MENPET as of this issue. [14][15]
3. Natural Gas & Offshore Assets — MOMENTUM
Dragon, Loran & Perla
▸ DRAGON FIELD &MDASH; DUAL-LICENCE ACTIVE VE 30-yr licence (2023) + OFAC GL 50B (June 10, 2026) authorizes Shell and BP transactions. Full execution remains subject to U.S. regulatory conditions. [18]
▸ LORAN FIELD &MDASH; NEW LICENCE Venezuela granted Shell a first-phase exploration licence for Loran (7–7.3 Tcf) on June 11, 2026. First gas targeted for 2027. [17]
▸ PERLA / CARDON IV Eni–Repsol sustaining ~580 MMcf/d (~35% of domestic gas supply); LNG pathway targeted for 2031. [6]
4. Refining & Midstream Logistics — DIVERGENT
▸ CRP RECOVERY National refining recovered to ~35% of nameplate (~450 kbpd). Paraguana complex throughput rose to 287 kbpd. [7]
▸ EL PALITO Processing ~80 kbpd through one CDU; FCC cracker handling ~35 kbpd additional. [7]
▸ PUERTO LA CRUZ Running at ~82 kbpd across two distillation units as of February 2026. [7]
▸ POWER DEPENDENCY Paraguana power outages are the single confirmed operational constraint. GE Vernova MOU is the direct remediation. [7][9]
5. Petrochemicals — DELAYED
▸ ASOQUIM PLAN $10B 10-year plan presented at Expo Asoquim; no EPC contracts publicly verified. [N/A]
▸ FEEDSTOCK CONSTRAINT Domestic gas supply cannot expand until offshore gas (Dragon/Loran) reaches production. [8][17]
6. Electrical Power Utilities (SEN / CORPOELEC) — CRITICAL → MOMENTUM
▸ GE VERNOVA MOU Signed June 16, 2026: restore 1,000 MW in 24 months and 5,000+ MW in 4–5 years. [9]
▸ IMPSA / TOCOMA Signed June 16, 2026: 672 MW in 19 months; up to 2,160 MW at Tocoma plus 480 MW at Macagua. [9]
▸ ELECTRICITY-LAW REFORM First reading June 4, 2026 opening generation, transmission, distribution to private participation. [9]
PMO NOTE — SEN Critical Path: The GE Vernova + IMPSA dual-agreement addresses the power reliability constraint affecting refinery CDUs, pump stations, and industrial utilities. Both agreements are at MOU stage; financial close and EPC contract awards remain to be verified.
II VEV Revenues, CITGO, Energy-Sector Debt & Financing
2.1 VEV Revenues & Fund Flows
▸ EXPORT VOLUME & VALUE Approximately 100 million barrels (~$8B est.) flowed to market in the first four months; weekly U.S. imports peaked at 713 Mb/d. [20][12]
▸ EO 14373 CUSTODY Oil-sale and diluent proceeds are routed into Foreign Government Deposit Funds (FGDF) held in U.S. Treasury custodial accounts. [19]
▸ SANCTIONED-VESSEL CHANNEL DISPLACEMENT GL 46C / 50B exclude blocked vessels and impose U.S.-law contracting plus 10-day/90-day reporting to State and DOE. [2][19]
▸ TRANSPARENCY STATUS Aggregate balances and disbursement detail are not yet publicly disclosed. Monitoring continues. [20]
2.2 Independent Oversight — Transparency Process in Progress
▸ GAO AUDIT PATHWAY A formal congressional request (April 17, 2026) asks the GAO to audit the EO 14373 framework, including custody, sale process, and disbursements. [21]
▸ THIRD-PARTY AUDIT DOE has publicly stated that third-party auditors are being engaged; the framework was described as not yet finalized. [20][21]
2.3 CITGO / PDV Holding — Sale Pending
▸ COURT APPROVAL Judge Leonard P. Stark approved the $5.9 billion sale of PDV Holding to Amber Energy, plus a $2.1 billion PDVSA 2020 bondholder settlement. [22][23]
▸ SALE NOT YET CLOSED As of June 19, 2026, the transaction has NOT been executed. Pending OFAC approval, active appeals, and final creditor settlement. [23][24]
▸ STRATEGIC RELEVANCE CITGO operates ~829,000 bpd of U.S. refining capacity configured for Venezuelan heavy/sour crude grades. [23][24]
▸ PMO MONITORING COMMITMENT CITGO will remain in this report until the sale is formally closed and OFAC approval is publicly confirmed.
2.4 Energy-Sector Debt (Ring-Fenced)
▸ PDVSA OBLIGATIONS PDVSA 2020 bonds and bond defaults tracked separately from sovereign debt to prevent double-counting. [22][25]
▸ ARBITRAL AWARDS ICSID/UNCITRAL awards constitute the primary driver of the CITGO auction process. [22]
2.5 VEV-Specific Financing
▸ IOC-FUNDED JV COMMITMENTS Chevron, Repsol, Eni, Shell, and BP are funding first-phase upstream and offshore CapEx, reducing sovereign capital exposure. [3][4][5][6]
▸ MULTILATERAL PREREQUISITE IMF relation resumption and Centerview appointment are the prerequisite steps for IFC/IDB/CAF disbursement. [10][25]
III Sovereign Finance & Debt Restructuring
▸ CENTERVIEW APPOINTMENT Venezuela formally initiated comprehensive debt restructuring; Centerview Partners appointed adviser ($150–170B external; ~$219B total). [10]
▸ IMF ENGAGEMENT Relations resumed April 2026; IMF Article IV review required for a credible DSA. [10][25]
▸ ADVISER PROCESS A competing advisory proposal illustrates an active mandate process. [10]
IV Master Plan Impact Matrix
| Sector | Plan Target | Confirmed Status | Impact & Variance | Ref |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Upstream | ~1.0–1.2 Mbpd by end-2026; IOC JV frameworks signed; rig ramp required | 1.031 Mbpd (Apr 2026, OPEC/CEIC). Orinoco Belt >500 kbpd. Chevron, Repsol, Eni deals signed. | ✅ ALIGNED/AHEAD — Production on trajectory; IOC re-entry ahead of schedule. | [1][2][3][4][5][11][12][13] |
| Drilling & Well Delivery | Rig reactivation; ramp toward 93 active rigs through 2028 | 2 active rigs (Baker Hughes, end-Mar 2026); 9 land rigs pulled from storage; 5 under assessment. | 🔵 MOMENTUM (early stage) — Refurbishment cost ($1M+/rig) is the binding constraint. | [14][15][16] |
| Regulatory Framework | New LOH enacted; OFAC normalization; royalty rule effective | LOH Reform enacted Jan 29, 2026. Royalty cap 30%. OFAC GL 46C/47A/48B/50B active Jun 10, 2026. | ✅ ALIGNED/AHEAD — Regulatory framework enacted. IIH tax regulation pending. | [1][2] |
| Natural Gas & Offshore | Dragon FID; Loran development; Perla ~580 MMcf/d | Dragon: dual licence active. Loran: VE licence granted Jun 11, 2026 (7–7.3 Tcf). | 🔵 MOMENTUM — Both licensing tracks active; full execution pending U.S. conditions. | [6][8][17][18] |
| Refining & Midstream | CRP throughput recovery; Cardon FCC restart | CRP: ~287 kbpd (30% of nameplate). El Palito: ~80 kbpd. Puerto La Cruz: ~82 kbpd. | 🔴 DIVERGENT (improving) — SEN power outages confirmed as primary constraint. | [7] |
| Petrochemicals | ASOQUIM stabilization; gas feedstock security | ASOQUIM $10B plan presented Apr 2026; no EPC contracts verified. | ⏳ DELAYED — Expansion gated by offshore gas feedstock timeline. | [N/A] |
| Power / SEN | GE Vernova/CORPOELEC MOU; IMPSA Tocoma | GE Vernova MOU Jun 16, 2026: 1,000 MW/24mo; 5,000+ MW/5yr. IMPSA Tocoma: 672 MW/19mo. | 🔵 CRITICAL→MOMENTUM — MOU stage; EPC awards remain to be verified. | [9] |
| VEV Revenues & Funds | Transparent capture of export proceeds | ~100 MMbbl exported / ~$8B est. FGDF custody under EO 14373. GAO audit requested Apr 17, 2026. | 🟡 TRANSPARENCY IN PROGRESS — No disbursement line-item data this cycle. | [19][20][21] |
| CITGO / PDV Holding | Court-ordered sale to Amber Energy; close pending | Dec 2025: Judge Stark approved $5.9B Amber Energy bid + $2.1B PDVSA 2020 bond settlement. | 🟡 PENDING CLOSE — OFAC approval and appeals remain. | [22][23][24] |
| Sovereign & Energy Debt | Adviser appointed; restructuring initiated | Centerview appointed May 13, 2026. DSA Jun 2026. IMF resumed Apr 2026. $150–170B external. | ✅ ALIGNED — Restructuring formally initiated. IMF Article IV review needed. | [10][25] |
Swipe table to see all columns on small screens.
APP Appendix: Verified Source References
All sources retrieved and verified. Only sources directly cited in the report body are listed.
[1] King & Spalding / Baker McKenzie / Mayer Brown. (2026, Jan 29–Mar 9). Venezuela Reforms Hydrocarbons Law (Official Gazette No. 6.978).
[2] Morgan Lewis. (2026, Feb 19). Venezuela Oil Industry Sanctions Update: OFAC GL 46A–50A. ofac.treasury.gov
[3] Rigzone. (2026, Apr 16). Chevron Expands Heavy Oil Footprint in Venezuela.
[4] Repsol S.A. (2026, Apr 16). Repsol Agrees Conditions to Increase Its Oil Production in Venezuela.
[5] Rigzone. (2026, Apr 29). Eni Reaches Agreement with Venezuela to Restart 35Bbbl Junin-5 Field.
[6] World Oil / Bloomberg. (2026, Apr 20). Offshore Venezuela Gas Project Advances — Perla / Cardon IV LNG FDP.
[7] Inspectioneering / Reuters. (2026, Feb 23–24). Venezuela’s Refineries Boost Processing to 35% of Capacity.
[8] CSIS / JPT-SPE. (2026, Apr; Feb). Dragon Field Licensing; Plataforma Deltana Status.
[9] UPI / Venezuelanalysis / MercoPress. (2026, Jun 16). Venezuela Signs GE Vernova and IMPSA Deals.
[10] BusinessWire. (2026, May 13). Initiation of Comprehensive Public Debt Restructuring; Centerview Partners Appointed Adviser.
[11] CEIC Data / OPEC. (2026, Jun 1). Venezuela Crude Oil Production — April 2026: 1,031,000 bpd. ceicdata.com
[12] RBN Energy. (2026, Jun). More Barrels Reaching U.S. Refiners; 713 Mb/d week ending May 15, 2026.
[13] Kpler / The National News. (2026, Jan 5). Venezuelan oil output could reach 1.2 million bpd by end of 2026. thenationalnews.com
[14] Reuters / Cyprus Mail / Modern Diplomacy. (2026, Apr 27–May 3). Companies dust off oil rigs in storage in Venezuela. cyprus-mail.com
[15] Reuters / BOE Report. (2026, Apr 27). Venezuela Oil Ministry identifies 93 rigs needed through 2028. boereport.com
[16] Monocle / Venezuelanalysis. (2026, Apr 4; 2025, Sep 9). Maurel & Prom drilling barge active in Lake Maracaibo. monocle.com
[17] MercoPress. (2026, Jun 11). Venezuela hands Shell a licence for the cross-border Loran gas field. mercopress.com
[18] Ocean Energy Resources. (2025, Oct 12). Trinidad’s Dragon gas deal makes comeback. ocean-energyresources.com
[19] The White House / U.S. Treasury. Executive Order 14373 (2026, Jan 9): Safeguarding Venezuelan Oil Revenue.
[20] Council on Foreign Relations. (2026, Jun 17). The U.S. Took Over Venezuela’s Oil Industry. cfr.org
[21] U.S. House of Representatives. (2026, Apr 17). Letter Requesting GAO Audit of the U.S.–Venezuela Energy Deal. castro.house.gov
[22] Reuters / MarketScreener. (2025, Nov 29–Dec 3). U.S. Judge Authorizes Sale of Citgo Parent to Amber Energy.
[23] Shale24 / Enerdata. (2026, Jan 13; Dec 2025). CITGO sale approved but not closed. shale24.com
[24] Reuters / AOL Finance. (2026, Jan 9). Trump’s oil strategy for Venezuela leaves Citgo auction in limbo. finance.yahoo.com
[25] Investment Monitor / Global Witness. (2026, May; Jan). Venezuela launches sovereign, PDVSA debt restructuring process.
DISCLAIMER
This report is prepared and published by TRANSBACO in its capacity as an independent monitoring organization acting in the public interest. All findings, milestones, and assessments are derived from named, reputable public sources, each individually cited. The only proprietary element used is the TRANSBACO Master Plan, referenced solely as a benchmark against publicly reported developments. No other confidential or non-public information has been used. This report does not constitute legal, financial, or investment advice. TRANSBACO assumes no liability for decisions made on its basis. Published under Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY).
TRANSBACO operates as a voluntary independent PMO pending the establishment of a formal governmental or multilateral PMO for the Venezuela Energy Vector transition. TRANSBACO actively welcomes collaboration with any such body upon its creation, and will make its accumulated research, methodology, and analytical frameworks available in support of the formal oversight function.
Venezuela Energy Vector V09.4 (copyright TRANSBACO) · AACE Class 5 (−50%/+100%) · Issue Date: 19 June 2026
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